Pandora’s Grecian Riddle

I have a puzzle zagadka.info for you. What, in the face of a faltering domestic economy, might cause the U.S. Dollar and Gold to rise while maintaining unusually low short term interest rates?

The solution is that larger problems abroad are now coming to light.

I have been warning about major crisis developing in Old Europe and the Mediterranean for the past six months. Many of you who get your news from sources other CNBC and the Fox Business channel are already aware that Greece is in serious trouble. Yesterday, February 15, members of the EU gathered in Brussels to debate how to deal with Greece’s inability to align its budget with its national debt obligations, which presently amount to around 300 million Euros.

In order to continue operating through the end of this year, they will also need to seek financing totaling more than 50 million euros. At the moment, their deficit amounts to around 12.7% of GDP. For 2010, Jean-Claude Trichet and the other EU policymakers hope to reduce this figure to 4%. According to what I understand, there is a tacit understanding among EU members that deficit funding cannot represent more than 3% of GDP for EU members.

To put this into perspective, Greece’s debt to GDP ratio is roughly the same as our debt levels in the United States. The U.S. would have to reduce its budget deficit, which is now approximately $1.3 trillion, by more than $550 billion both this year and the following year. Can you envision the resulting civic turmoil or the impact on Medicare, welfare, or social security? What about the public schools, the police, and the post office? This is what Greece would experience as a result of the EU’s rough plan.

Naturally, the following idea is, “It is Greece. Then what? What harm could there be?” Keep in mind that we are discussing a sum of almost 300 billion euros. John Mauldin estimates that this amounts to 2.7% of the GDP of Europe. Do you recall Bear Stearns? They held fewer than 2% of the assets of American banks. The problem here is that in the event of contagion, the other EU countries would not be able to act promptly and decisively due to a lack of collective coordination. In 1998, Russia had a very distinct operating system. Decisions were made, and orders were followed.